What’s The Worst Case Scenario For Bitcoin Right Now? Analyst Explains
23 Diciembre 2024 - 3:30AM
NEWSBTC
In his latest video published on December 21, crypto analyst Rekt
Capital tried to answer the question “What’s The Worst Case
Scenario For Bitcoin Right Now?”. After reaching a new all-time
high at $108,374 on December 17, the BTC price is down more than
-11%. How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go? Rekt Capital put the Bitcoin
price pullback in a historical perspective, underscoring the
historical importance of weeks 6, 7, and 8 in a “price discovery
uptrend.” Drawing upon past cycles such as 2013, 2016–2017, and
2021, he explained that Bitcoin has a strong tendency to correct
during these specific windows, with some dips reaching as steep as
34% or even higher. “Understanding these weeks is crucial because
they tend to be problematic for Bitcoin,” Rekt Capital stated,
referencing past cycles where significant downturns occurred within
this timeframe. For instance, in week 7 of the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin
experienced a dramatic 75% pullback over 13 weeks. Similarly, the
2016-2017 period saw a 34% decline in week 8, underscoring the
recurring vulnerability during these specific weeks. Related
Reading: Is The Bitcoin Top In For This Cycle? On-Chain Signals You
Need To Know As of the current cycle, Bitcoin has undergone a 10%+
retracement, bringing its price into a historically critical
support zone at $96,537 on the weekly chart. Rekt Capital
emphasized the importance of this support level, noting, “This area
of historical support has enabled the move to $108,000.” He
cautioned that failure to maintain this support could trigger a
more severe correction down to $89,830. Examining the price action
of the last few days, Rekt Capital pointed out the emergence of a
bearish engulfing candle in the weekly timeframe—a technical
indicator often associated with potential reversals. “We’re losing
resistances that turned into support,” he observed. This loss
signifies a potential transition into a corrective period, as the
price struggles to maintain its upward trajectory. Related Reading:
Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Peak Lies Above $225,000, The Timeline
Will Shock You Rekt Capital also pointed out the importance of
maintaining the 5-week technical line in his analysis. “If we lose
this 5-week technical uptrend and the orange trend line, it would
be mounting evidence that we might be transitioning into a
corrective period,” he warned. Furthermore, he addressed the CME
gap between the $78,000 and $80,000 price levels, a critical area
that has remained unfilled. “Delving into 26%, 27%, 28% dips could
fill the entire CME gap,” Rekt Capital noted. Historically, CME
gaps have the tendency to get filled whereas there are a few ones
which have never been filled. Despite all cautionary signals, Rekt
Capital maintains a bullish stance in the long-term “These
pullbacks are what enable future uptrends in the parabolic phase of
the cycle,” he explained. Drawing from previous cycles, he
illustrated how corrections have historically provided the
necessary “breather” for the market. In the 2021 cycle, for
example, Bitcoin experienced a 16% pullback in week 6 and an 8% dip
in week 8, yet the overall trend continued upward. Similarly, the
current 10% retracement, while significant, could serve as a
preparatory phase for the next leg of price discovery. At press
time, BTC traded at $95,000. Featured image created with DALL.E,
chart from TradingView.com
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