Pending sales were down 3% month over month and
6% year over year—both of which were the biggest drops in nearly a
year
(NASDAQ: RDFN) —Sales of existing homes rose 0.6% month over
month in July, but fell 2% year over year—to a seasonally adjusted
annual rate of 4,094,991. That’s the lowest July level in records
dating back to 2012. This is according to a new report from Redfin
(redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Pending sales—a more current gauge of demand that includes both
existing and newly-constructed homes—fell to the lowest level of
any month on record aside from April 2020, when the pandemic
brought the housing market to a halt. They declined 2.9% from a
month earlier and 5.8% from a year earlier—both the biggest
declines in nearly a year on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Mortgage rates dropped in July and have fallen even further in
August—giving house hunters more purchasing power—but buyers have
been slow to react. That’s likely in part because home prices are
still near their record high. The median sale price rose 4.1% year
over year in July to $439,170. That’s just 0.7% below the all-time
high of $442,389 set the prior month.
“When rates finally dropped, buyers got excited and we saw more
activity. But now that rates have fallen to the mid-6%-range,
people have been waiting to see if they’ll drop even more. Home
prices are going up, though, so it really becomes six of one, half
dozen of the other, ” said Nicole Stewart, a Redfin real estate
agent in Boise, ID. “A lot of people are also concerned about the
political climate. They can afford to buy, but have been holding
off because it’s unclear where the country will be in six months.
Though in reality, who is in the Oval Office probably won’t have
much of an impact on the housing market.”
July 2024 Housing Market
Highlights: United States
July 2024
Month-over-month
change
Year-over-year change
Median sale price
$439,170
-0.7%
4.1%
Existing home sales, seasonally
adjusted annual rate
4,094,991
0.6%
-2%
Pending sales, seasonally
adjusted
457,272
-2.9%
-5.8%
Homes sold, seasonally adjusted
417,066
0.2%
-1.6%
New listings, seasonally
adjusted
494,500
0.0%
2.9%
Total homes for sale, seasonally
adjusted (active listings)
1,635,395
-0.6%
13.7%
Months of supply
2.6
-0.1
0.3
Median days on market
34
2
5
Share of homes sold above final list
price
33.2%
-1.9 ppts
-4.9 ppts
Average sale-to-final-list-price
ratio
99.6%
-0.3 ppts
-0.5 ppts
Pending sales that fell out of
contract, as % of overall pending sales
15.8%
1.3 ppts
1.0 ppt
Average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.85%
-0.07 ppts
0.01 ppts
“Waiting around for mortgage rates to fall further isn't a
surefire strategy,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la
Campa. “If you have the means to buy and have been thinking about
doing so, now actually might not be a bad time. That’s because
mortgage rates have fallen enough to boost your purchasing power,
but not enough to bring tons of buyers off of the sidelines and
drive up competition.”
The Good News: More Homes to Choose From, and Fewer Selling
for Above-Asking Price
There are a few encouraging signs for homebuyers aside from the
dip in mortgage rates. For one, the total supply of homes for sale
(active listings) rose a record 13.7% year over year in July.
Many listings on the market are getting stale as buyers grapple
with high costs, which is causing supply to pile up—giving some
buyers room to negotiate. The typical home that went under contract
in July spent 34 days on the market, up from 29 days a year earlier
and the longest of any July since 2020.
It’s worth noting that active listings did fall 0.6% from a
month earlier in July—the first seasonally-adjusted decline in a
year. New listings were little changed from a month earlier, and
while they were up 2.9% year over year, they were still at the
lowest level since last July.
Another silver lining for buyers: Only one-third of homes
(33.2%) sold for more than their asking price, down from 38.2% a
year earlier and the lowest share of any July since 2020.
Homebuyers Are Backing Out of Deals at a Record Rate
Roughly 59,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled in July,
equal to 15.8% of homes that went under contract that month—the
highest percentage of any July on record. Redfin’s records for this
statistic date back to 2017.
Many house hunters are getting cold feet because housing costs
remain high. Economic uncertainty is also high, with recession
fears on the rise.
Buyers in Florida and Texas were most likely to back out of
deals. Housing markets across both states have slowed considerably
since the pandemic moving frenzy, with markets on Florida’s West
Coast cooling faster than anywhere else in the nation amid rising
supply and a climate-fueled insurance crisis.
In Tampa, 1,266 home-purchase agreements were canceled in July,
equal to 21.9% of homes that went under contract that month—a
higher share than any other major metro. Next came Fort Lauderdale
(21.8%) and San Antonio (21.8%). The shares were lowest in Nassau
County (5.4%), San Francisco (6.1%) and San Jose (7%).
Metro-Level Highlights: July 2024
- Prices: Median sale prices rose most from a year earlier
in New Brunswick, NJ (14.6%), Detroit (13.5%) and Newark, NJ (12%).
They fell in just two metros–Austin, TX (-2.6%) and Dallas
(-1.2%)—and were flat in San Antonio.
- Pending sales: Pending sales rose most in San Francisco
(13.5%), San Jose, CA (13.3%) and Newark (12.7%). They fell most in
Houston (-22.1%), Minneapolis (-11.8%) and Atlanta (-9.8%).
- Closed home sales: Home sales rose most in San Jose
(26.7%), San Francisco (17.4.%) and Providence, RI (17.3%). They
fell most in West Palm Beach, FL (-7.7%), Detroit (-5.1%) and
Austin (-4.1%).
- Active listings: Active listings rose most in Tampa, FL
(51.8%), Cincinnati (49.4%) and Fort Lauderdale (49.1%). They fell
in just one metro—Chicago (-1.6%)—and were up less than 1% in New
York (0.7%) and Milwaukee (0.9%).
- New listings: New listings rose most in Providence
(20.1%), San Jose (19.2%) and Las Vegas (18.4%). They fell most in
Atlanta (-15.1%), Portland, OR (-12%) and Houston (-11.1%).
- Sold above list price: In Newark, 69% of homes sold
above their final list price, the highest share among the metros
Redfin analyzed. Next came San Jose (65.5%) and Nassau County, NY
(60.6%). The shares were lowest in West Palm Beach (7.8%), Miami
(11.4%) and Fort Lauderdale (12.2%).
To view the full report, including charts please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/existing-home-sales-july-2024
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save
thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying
customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and
title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home
can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our
rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments
and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers
more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100
markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000
people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity
Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and
WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240819290841/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Kenneth Applewhaite
press@redfin.com
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